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Research Objectives

Objective 2. Use the model to assess the replicability of populism’s trajectory in non-CEE Europe.

Armed with the model in Objective 1, we use it as a mirror in which Northern, Western, and Southern Europe can catch a reflex of themselves. Our main tool here is a fifth discipline, foresight/futures studies. Accordingly, we develop scenarios, and reflect, in public debate, how well they fit European countries, both in the CEE region and outside of it. Needless to say, our goal here is not to generate representative predictions of how societies will respond. Rather, it is to stimulate debate, by helping citizens think about plausible interactions between large-scale events, political decisionmaking and societal reaction in democratic societies. Also (and importantly) they help gauge cross-national differences in how publics perceive the threat of populism in their countries.